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That Volume Thingie

chris — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:34:43 +0000

My intra-day 5-minute volume oscilator is at new lows for the day while the eMini is 10 points above the RTH low. Expect the volume to be telling the true story.

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Who do you believe?

chris — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 15:12:01 +0000

The eMini has been trying to rally from its lows made in the opening half-hour while the volume oscillator just keeps going down. Odds are that the futures price will ultimately follow the oscillator.

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Another Channel Reached

chris — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:22:24 +0000

eMini prices reached the bottom of the 60 minute channel this morning. Expect a pause or a bounce from these levels. There’s no divergence on this time frame or higher, but the 27 minute chart (which I never show) is set up for a rally here. Perhaps they can rally half-a-day, but even that may be too optimistic.

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Support

chris — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 17:58:53 +0000

The eMini is finding a small amount of support just beneath the lower channel on the 60 minute chart. Both the modified DMX and Tick Cycle-Trap are diverging here. To me, the suggestion is a small rally and a pause in the decline. I don’t think much comes of this on the upside – but let’s watch what develops.

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Watching the Volume

chris — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 17:27:44 +0000

It looks has if the S&P rollover is for real here. Here’s my volume oscillator on the 5 minute eMini chart. Notice that during the 90 minute rally attempt in the late morning the oscillator just kept heading lower. That’s bearish.

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“..for my next trick.”

chris — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:48:32 +0000

Actually, there is no ‘next trick.’ The job here is to perform workmanlike technical analysis and navigate the still treacherous waters. Here’s the short-term picture on the ever-popular eMini contract. The mini paused this morning at the top of the 60 minute channel and is now ready to run to the top of the 135 minute channel at the 1000 level. I’m showing the daily chart today for the first time in a long time, as it’s reasonable to assume the eMini will attain the top of the daily channel in this run as well. That number is now 1115, but dropping at the steep rate of 15 handles per day. I’m thinking price and this channel may meet at the 1040-1046 area, where there is some prior established resistence.

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They Didn’t Get the Memo

chris — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:08:48 +0000

The U.S. stock market doesn’t seem to have gotten the memo that ‘Turnaround Tueday” was to have been a world wide reversal in stocks. The Asian markets led by Hong Kong reversed nicely as did Europe led by the DAX and that bizarre short-squeeze in Volkswagen shares. But the eMini futures seem only capable of significant rallies in the overnight hours, when presumably the sellers are sleeping. As a positive, every move down into the 835-825 area this month has been met with real buying. The market appears to be defining that price area as the low end of a new range.

I remain convinced that the climax in the herding of fear and panic behavior is past. But the necessary deleveraging of portfolios continues, and to the extent those are automatic computer-driven decisions, stocks can go down regardless of any improvements in investor’s mood. “Turnaround Tuesday” isn’t over yet. Let’s give it the full day to play out.

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Eerie Equilibrium

chris — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 16:08:41 +0000

The U.S. stock market is exhibiting an eerie equilibrium this morning. The eMini touched new lows at 825 last night but has recovered all of those losses. The modified DMX indicator on both the 60 and 135 minute time frames are moving horizontally, indicating that this market right now has no trend whatsoever.

If I’m right, the selling is over but stocks don’t yet realize the sellers have left the arena. Range trade selling has appeared this morning at the two attempts to cross 880. Once that number is successfully taken out, then 916-918 becomes important and then the top channel on the 60 minute at 955+ should be easy.

Get ready for the ride up!

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It Could Get Ugly

chris — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:22:23 +0000

The eMini is decisively below the lower 60 minute channel so now we look to the 135 minute channel as the likely ending point for this decline. That number is now at 819 and will be around 805 at tomorrow’s close. You have to figure that once the October 10 low at 837 breaks, a significant number of sell stops will be triggered. The next 26 hours should be interesting. A bottom could come in at either Friday’s close or Monday’s open.

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Now It Gets Tougher

chris — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:49:21 +0000

The move from the top to the bottom of the 60 minute channel was the easier market read. Now it gets tougher. Does the market find support at that channel? Or does it continue lower to the 135 minute and daily channels (currently 835 and 831 respectively). The late bounce suggests stocks are trying to find support here. But there’s no divergence on the 60 minute time frame of note, and my calendar work has pointed to a test of the October 10 low occurring as close to this Friday’s close/Monday’s open as possible. So on balance I think we head to those lower channels. An updated Solunar Model chart for the Dow is included this evening for you viewing enjoyment.

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