pay attention or pay the offer

Everything’s gong down together. The recommended bond short has done well. The recommended gold long started off in the right direction than headed south somewhat dramatically. I want to hold onto the bond position but not gold. The channels suggest gold could reach 750 before finding some support. The selling the euro continues and that [...]

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The 30-yr bond showed late strentgth today. The bond had been near the top of its channel and had registered a pair of RSI divergences within the week. I think any clear reversal in bonds will mark a temporary low in stocks. For stock traders, keep an eye on the 30-year future.

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The [...]

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Or even, something I’ve never seen ever before!  The 10-yr note yields made a bullish range-bust reversal on Friday (red & white bar) and a bearish range-bust reversal (green & black bar) the next trading day. Both bars correctly forecast the next day’s direction. I’d expect to see the volatility in yields start to dampen, [...]

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In a recent comment, Joe M asks…
Can you please comment on long-term bonds? - I understand that with the deflationary outlook, treasury bonds should raise in price (yields go down) over the next two years or so. On the other hand, we seem to have made an important high with the double-top January / March. [...]

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Simple charts tell a simple story. There’s really no need to add words to this daily S&P 500 cash index chart.

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Here’s the last time I showed a chart of bond futures. They’ve moved on up as forecast. Now they’re bumping into the top of their daily channel, so a pause [...]

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The big picture view here at pay attention has been that inflation is yesterday’s news, that will soon be forgotten as the last of the bubbles have popped in series. The dollar rally is key here, but money is not being attracted to the dollar by higher rates, as is traditional. Rather the dollar and [...]

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Last week in Bonds Basing I wrote, “Bonds look like they’re basing and will work their way higher over coming weeks.” - Here’s the before & after charts. An up week this week in bond futures will result in the first close over 116 since May.

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click chart to enlarge

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The cycle-trap on the weekly bond chart turned up three weeks ago. After some weakness, the daily chart has no recovered the net-line buy signal first penetrated on Thursday. Bonds look like they’re basing and will work their way higher over coming weeks.
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click chart to enlarge

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Gold and the euro have strong weekly charts here. Gold’s cycle-trap indicator turned up this week and the metal closed above it’s buy signal net-line. We’ll see if gold can make a run above the March 17 top.

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The euro made a new weekly high close, breaking out above recent consolidation,

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Last week I wrote about the dollar strengthening against the yen as the key to popping the commodity bubble. That post showed monthly and weekly charts of dollar yen. Here’s a daily chart of dollar yen showing the dollar’s move up today through it’s buy signal net line.
 

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And here’s today’s oil [...]

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I have written a Special Report titled - Infation, Deflation, Youflation: A Long Wave Road Map. The report is 10 pages and contains 16 charts. It follows the form of the Long Term Forecasts issued by Calendar Research in years past. I’m sending it out to anyone who donates $35. (or more!) to the blog.
I [...]

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From mid February to mid March, the dollar fell against the yen, bonds rose as interest rates fell and U.S. stocks dropped. Now we’re seeing signals that all three of these markets are beginning new trends in those same directions. The dollar has just started to fall, bonds are reversing higher and stocks are coming [...]

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