pay attention or pay the offer » Before & After

How This Stuff Works

ChrisC — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:29:23 +0000

One of the approaches I use here at pay attention… is to utilize a set of four indicator signals; net-lines, range-bust reversals, RSI divergence and the cycle-trap to help spot trend changes and/or expected movement. I show charts when a few of these signals show up. On Thursday, I noted the existence of two negative signals in the bond futures. On Monday I updated that with another negative signal. Today, the bonds are down 1 and 3/32, and the cycle-trap has now chimed in with a fourth signal tonght.

That is how this stuff works!!

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The Last 60 Points

chris — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:54:17 +0000

The first chart below is the 135 minute published last Monday with the eMinis at the 863 level. My goal with these eMini signals is to try and catch the next 25 points in the S&P 500, which are worth $1250 per eMini futures contract. As the second, updated chart shows, this signal has caught the last 60 points. The blog format preserves every post I’ve made here since starting last this website last March, and readers are invited to browse back and see how I’ve done with these eMini market calls.

Yesterday’s post on tidal and solunar influences makes an argument for a possible top tomorrow. The 60 minute eMini chart shows a small early warning signal in the deteriorating modified DMX indicator. And yet, this has been a powerful move, and it looks like it will take some more work before it reverses, perhaps more deterioration during the day on Monday will presage a reversal. We shall see.

There seems to be a fair number of people who are now making bullish noises, so perhaps a trap is being set. The Tricks Index chart is very overbought, though I’m disappointed that the developing divergence was taken out with Friday’s strong market.

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Gold & Oil

chris — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 23:30:52 +0000

This December 11 blog post noted gold’s breakout above it’s congested channel. Gold has now put in two white weekly bars above that channel. Gold is very bullish here. It may very well be the last opportunity to get on board gold below 1000.

I noted oil’s bearish range-bust reversal bar in this December 15 post. That signal has turned out to be an excellent one. When oil was at $50. then, there were plenty of analysts calling for a bottom in place. It’s now clear that oil made a top at that time, just as the range-bust bar signaled.

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Gold Again

chris — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:54:14 +0000

Last week I wrote to expect a gold correction down to support near 840. Low tick on Friday on the CBOT electronic contract was 822.6. The intraday chart shown here has two RSI divergences plus the Cycle-Trap has turned up and a net-line buy signal. That’s enough for me! Gold is once again the place to be in these perilous times, in my opinion.

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Yen & Gold – Before & After

chris — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:09:05 +0000

Yesterday I showed Gold & Yen charts. My indicators correctly presaged the huge moves in both of these markets today, even if I was perhaps not as enthusiastically on board. Maybe I should opine less and indicate more! Nonetheless, this was a good example of how my indicators are specifically designed to find those important trend change points.

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A Day Later

chris — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:22:49 +0000

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The updated 60 minute eMini chart highlights what a good job the modified DMX indicator did in identifying the bottoming taking place yesterday. The modified DMX is the Directional Market Index indicator, and I use the version from Jurik Research. I do however, make a slight change to it (that’s the “modified” part) so I’m not running the Jurik indicator straight out of the box.

The top of the 60 minute channel is at 1287 and the 135 minute channel is close to that at 1292. Anything is possible after today’s Fed announcement at 2:15 EDT.

Bonds – Before & After

chris — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 20:15:06 +0000

Last week in Bonds Basing I wrote, “Bonds look like they’re basing and will work their way higher over coming weeks.” – Here’s the before & after charts. An up week this week in bond futures will result in the first close over 116 since May.

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Best in the Business

chris — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:49:33 +0000

May I brag a little?

From the June 29, Special Report. Original charts reprinted below.

“So Where is That Oil Top? Mid July 2008 sees one of the most interesting Spiral Calendar possible turns in crude oil. The charts on page eight detail the formation. Three important crude oil turns, the November 2001 low, the July 2006 top and the January 2008 low all point to July 12-13 for a crude oil turn. Those dates are a Saturday and Sunday. Adding another day on each side gives us July 11-14 for that turn. With crude oil in a potentially unsustainable vertical rally, these dates seem very realistic for an important top. Likewise, stocks have been accelerating to the downside. It’s very conceivable that the next two weeks see runaway oil prices and sharply falling stocks resulting in spike turns for both, a stock market low and an oil market top…”

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More on Gold

chris — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 23:09:11 +0000

Monday I wrote:

It’s just a matter of time before gold makes another move down. Friday’s net-line sell penetration is a warning sign of that coming down-move. The cycle-trap is still heading up, but that should rollover, perhaps later this week. There’s really not a lot of risk in being short gold at these levels.

Today gold dropped $18. Here’s a weekly chart, that shows the bear flag that has formed in recent weeks, as well as the three sell indications in a five week span. Ideally, the flag marks the half-way point of the move lower, which therefore projects to the $830. area.

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Bonds Reach The Channel

chris — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:13:23 +0000

The blog posts of March 18 and March 26 described how bonds bounce back and forth within their channel and how the cycle-trap identifies the turns. Bonds have now reached that lower channel. The cycle-trap has not yet identified a turn and bonds may move somewhat lower, but the overall analysis made last month was on the money.

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