I fully concur that this analysis has very little chance of success, but the coincidence of the key dates so far is nonetheless intreiguing enough to keep my attention. I don’t necessarily believe there will be a crash either, but just that these key SC dates lead to significant trend changes that could lead to 3 weeks of hard down action… just after Nov options expiry !

I don’t know if anyone else has been remotely following this via VirginiaJim + there’s still a week to go until the next key date, by which time it may already be void, so I’ll leave further comment until then.

A bit of down, then up to 23Nov would seem to be the best outcome. This would also fit with EW ending diagonal (although I don’t like the fact it doesn’t actually take on a diagonal shape)

Good weekend to all,
C

EW is my bread & butter. I don’t subscribe to EWI because I agree with pcampbell66 that they are simply not open-minded enough; furthermore they consistently call for tops rather than awaiting confirmation which knocks their credibility.

With this new high, for me there is now no count that looks an obvious preferred count. Indeed, if we get a blow-off top (which looks increasingly possible) NDX will blow past its .618 retracement AND take on a respectable 5 wave form from the lows, thereby severely questioning whether P3 will actually happen…. There again, if we inch & chop our way a little higher before impulsing down in earnest…

Thus for the first time since March, I am turning neutral…. (which is probably good news for the bears! I hope!!)

Fingers crossed for a turnaround this weekend

Cheers, Chris

I’ll mention some of the external factors only just so you get an idea and have the chance to reject out of hand: Puetz has the 18th as a major inflection point in his 258-day cycle. The 15th marks the first of three waning squares between Saturn and Pluto. Go back in history to see what hard angles between these two planets lead to; According to Calleman we started the ‘6th night’ (Mayan Calendar) on the 8th November. We also have an interesting new moon on the 16th. All these mean nothing unless you started with an open mind and did some reading and research. I can’t tell you how many hours I’ve spent (and in some cases wasted) on various searches.

The bottom line is that we should get something ‘interesting’ happening around the coming weekend. I hope it is in the markets but you can never be sure. These cycles are universal and don’t always manifest their presence fully through the markets. It would be too easy if they did.

It seems to me a little premature to suggest the solunar model is now back in gear ?

Let’s face it, pretty much nothing is working in this marketplace right now ! As an increasingly despondent bear already fully loaded up (in retrospect foolishly) with Dec put warrants I am in need of some hope !

@ Gold, you recently put forward the 13th & 16th as dates you were watching for a significant high. With this becoming a possibility, perhaps you could tell me more / explain the logic behind it. Much appreciated Chris

It seems like a tired decision. I think the markets ARE responding as you have mentioned to the dollar…and that a emotional drop in the dollar sets up stocks and commodities for a parabolic pop. A parabolic setup can sometimes look like an emerging new trend. But, I do not see a new trend.

My criticism of dollar calls in general is that there have been calls nearly every new low for a bottom in the dollar, especially from EWI. (Hochberg really is much to biased bearish for his and subscriber benefit and has messed up badly on this countertrend rally overall, imo) I think that, though there has been discussion regarding an emotional bottom in the dollar, there has been a lot of confusion and lack of patience regarding its progress. Oil’s wave 5 here for example seems likely come in quick pop…on an emotional drop in the dollar…which would look to be a quick affair.

I just can not view anything having changed in market structure…we still have great trendlines and resistance directly above, lousy internals, timing for a top and a setup for a parabolic blow off – even for stocks.

I just can not understand focusing on looking for positive seasonals…whatever that means.

Though, I was looking for a potential bottom in the dollar (http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com/2009/11/dollar-pattern-broke-supports.html), it was fairly easy to see the pattern was pretty weak or compromised a week ago. I think the bottom will occur on this subwave structure and that you have been right in your observations regarding the dollar…but I am at a loss as to how to interpret this post…

…am I really now to start watching for a seasonally strong rally right when all the parameters are setup for an emotional bottom in the dollar?