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I’ve been asked about Wednesday’s eclipse, and its relevence to the markets. I’m making this a public post available to all blog readers. About 10 years ago, I did research into eclipses. It was an outgrowth of my participation in the Colorado LongWaves group, which was a dynamic discussion group with some serious mental horsepower present, until it degenerated into the usual intenet food fight. I met Tom Drake, who posts comments on this board, at that time. I was spurred in my research by an exchange with Arch Crawford, who posited that an upcoming eclipse was important because it had some relationship to some or other  planetary angle. Now I don’t think planets have anything to do with the markets. But it seemed to me that if eclipses had an effect, then that effect should be stronger on those eclipses that featured a more precise alignment of sun/moon/earth.  In astronomical terms, the alignment is measured as the ‘gamma’ of the eclipse, which is how close the eclipse shadow comes to the center of the earth (not the equator, but the center – and the equator is the center on the equinoxes.) 

Now the short version (for the non-pay part of the site) is that I discovered that those saros cycles closest to zero gamma do seem to figure in the long-wave cycles. Solar eclipse saros cycles approaching zero gamma seem to relate to major, secular long-wave tops and lunar eclipse cycles near zero gamma have the same relation to long wave lows. A third relationship is a ‘panic necklace’ of cycles where eclispes past the zero value relate to panic years.

The interesting conclusion of this work was that secular market long-wave turns were not single events, but were usually double-tops or double-bottoms separated by 7 to 8  years. That phenomenon was a manifestation of the eclipse cycles. The saros cycle is 18 years and the each consecutive saros is separated by an average of 29 years. The turns occur on alternate saros (36 years). The presence of two cycles on consecutive saros results in the 7 to 8-year double top or bottom (36 years – 29=7).

The original forecast made in the late 1990s was for double tops in 2001 and 2009. This eclipse on Wednesday is the second eclipse in that gamma central series. The first chart below shows the expected high and low years based on my hypothesis and the below is the reality as it has played out. The third chart shows my forecast based on this model made in 2004 that there would be a second top that paired with the 2000 top occurring 7 to 8 years later. That forecast was, of course, correct.

Wednesday’s eclipse belongs to the same series that occured in the important top years of 1901, 1937 and 1973. Ultimately,  the Spiral Calendar is a key ingredient for the exact timing of the market turns, not the eclispe. Wednesday’s eclipse is not expected to form an important top, but it is part of a cycle mechanism that governs the current position in the economic long-wave. The understanding of these cycles allowed me to forecast the transistion from economic autumn (mild deflation and rising stocks) into economic winter (deflation and falling stocks.) My analysis of eclipse cycles was more accurate in determining that transition than other more well-known forecasting methodologies.

So yes, Wednesday’s eclipse is very important from a long-wave cycle standpoint, but it will not necessarily mark a precise market turn. Nonetheless, it is a topping force at work, and with prices  rising somewhat strongly into this time period, a reversal on the eclipse is possible

click chart to enlarge

click chart to enlarge

click chart to enlarge