Comments on: Levels http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/ thoughts on markets & cetera - christopher carolan Fri, 27 Jan 2012 01:53:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chrisss http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1014 Chrisss Mon, 22 Jun 2009 10:38:42 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1014 From a timing perspective, overall I agree that we are approaching a top; without picking a date, July seems to meet a consensus for when the turn should come. Chris Carolan's model appears more detailed & accurate than the Bradley model, but its encouraging that they tally. My favoured EW count calls for one more up leg. Despite the many models & indicators that we no doubt all follow, it seems to me that the SPX is trying for a touch on the EMA 65 that has kept traders on the right side of the market for a decade & more. Sometimes the most basic indicators are the most effective. Once we hit a high in July I think the market is in for 6 to 12 months of hell... but they'll be some 'nasty' rallies in there too... fun & games ! Chris From a timing perspective, overall I agree that we are approaching a top; without picking a date, July seems to meet a consensus for when the turn should come. Chris Carolan’s model appears more detailed & accurate than the Bradley model, but its encouraging that they tally. My favoured EW count calls for one more up leg.

Despite the many models & indicators that we no doubt all follow, it seems to me that the SPX is trying for a touch on the EMA 65 that has kept traders on the right side of the market for a decade & more. Sometimes the most basic indicators are the most effective.

Once we hit a high in July I think the market is in for 6 to 12 months of hell… but they’ll be some ‘nasty’ rallies in there too… fun & games ! Chris

]]> By: Susan46 http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1012 Susan46 Sat, 20 Jun 2009 00:17:55 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1012 Chris, Market Internals are telling the story in this market. Over the last 4weeks, buying pressure has faded at a greater rate than selling pressure has increased. So the market is drifting, the path of least resistance being higher. All on lo volume. It sets the stage for vulnerability to the downside should sellers reenter the market in force. So far there has been a reluctance to sell. The pattern could change at any time. Chris,
Market Internals are telling the story in this market.
Over the last 4weeks, buying pressure has faded
at a greater rate than selling pressure has increased.
So the market is drifting, the path of least resistance being higher. All on lo volume. It sets the stage for vulnerability to the downside should sellers reenter the market in force.
So far there has been a reluctance to sell. The pattern could change at any time.

]]> By: Paul_E http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1011 Paul_E Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:16:49 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1011 Thanks for this - will follow your recs re reading. Thanks for this – will follow your recs re reading.

]]> By: Chrisss http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1010 Chrisss Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:10:14 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1010 No time to follow up now, but certainly will as this all sounds v interesting :-) ! No time to follow up now, but certainly will as this all sounds v interesting :-) !

]]> By: Gold@3440 http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1008 Gold@3440 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:38:58 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1008 read up on Uranus-Pluto-Saturn aspects. Saturn-Pluto conjunctions and oppositions have a near 100% hit rate marking out all the major long term highs and lows going back to 1900 (I used an 18yr rolling return for the Dow). Based on that rolling return, we get major alternating highs and lows in 1929, 1947, 1966, 1982 and 2000/01. These almost exactly match the dates of every single Sat-Plu con/oppo aspect since 1900. On this basis, the next major cycle low (the start of best rolling 18yr period) does not happen until 2019. Equally importnat, Nov 2009 to Aug 2010 is a Sat-Plu square. This is period is where we should expect a depression and stock market collapse to intensify once more. Keep an open mind and judge the merits of financial astrology post-Aug 2010. read up on Uranus-Pluto-Saturn aspects. Saturn-Pluto conjunctions and oppositions have a near 100% hit rate marking out all the major long term highs and lows going back to 1900 (I used an 18yr rolling return for the Dow). Based on that rolling return, we get major alternating highs and lows in 1929, 1947, 1966, 1982 and 2000/01. These almost exactly match the dates of every single Sat-Plu con/oppo aspect since 1900. On this basis, the next major cycle low (the start of best rolling 18yr period) does not happen until 2019. Equally importnat, Nov 2009 to Aug 2010 is a Sat-Plu square. This is period is where we should expect a depression and stock market collapse to intensify once more. Keep an open mind and judge the merits of financial astrology post-Aug 2010.

]]> By: Gold@3440 http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1007 Gold@3440 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:05:11 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1007 @Chrisss. and Paul_E.. I'm back. I was on holiday for a bit.... First things first: the picture for what's coming up has just got very very clear to me. It is the same picture as I had before (major decline starting mid-July then monster collapse/summer of hell etc). But I have refined things as we've got closer to that date. So here's my crystal ball view FWIW: a likely TOP (either THE top @1020-1040 or a secondary, but lower top than the June top we've just had) on July 22nd. From there, markets drift off but not aggressively at first. Mid-August sees an acceleration to the downside and mid-Sept to March/April 2010 is the monster move down. I fully expect a 30-50% decline in the S&P in that period alone. I've already taken up too much room to give you the specific details of the analysis but suffice to say there is a lot of astro in this (sorry Chris!). We are entering a period both like the early 1930's (depression/equity collapse) and the mid-1960's (rebellion/revolt/sudden change/collapse of structures). These are all archetypes of the period we have entered for the next few years. Take your cues from outside the market - what is going on in Iran is a good example of the rebellion aspect. Expect a lot more in other societies. If you do one thing between now and late July, read Richard Tarnas' Cosmos & Psyche. Then read Ray Merriman's free weekly comments and articles over the last 2-3 years: http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/ @Chrisss. and Paul_E.. I’m back. I was on holiday for a bit…. First things first: the picture for what’s coming up has just got very very clear to me. It is the same picture as I had before (major decline starting mid-July then monster collapse/summer of hell etc). But I have refined things as we’ve got closer to that date. So here’s my crystal ball view FWIW: a likely TOP (either THE top @1020-1040 or a secondary, but lower top than the June top we’ve just had) on July 22nd. From there, markets drift off but not aggressively at first. Mid-August sees an acceleration to the downside and mid-Sept to March/April 2010 is the monster move down. I fully expect a 30-50% decline in the S&P in that period alone. I’ve already taken up too much room to give you the specific details of the analysis but suffice to say there is a lot of astro in this (sorry Chris!). We are entering a period both like the early 1930′s (depression/equity collapse) and the mid-1960′s (rebellion/revolt/sudden change/collapse of structures). These are all archetypes of the period we have entered for the next few years. Take your cues from outside the market – what is going on in Iran is a good example of the rebellion aspect. Expect a lot more in other societies. If you do one thing between now and late July, read Richard Tarnas’ Cosmos & Psyche. Then read Ray Merriman’s free weekly comments and articles over the last 2-3 years: http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/

]]> By: Paul_E http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1006 Paul_E Fri, 19 Jun 2009 08:50:35 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1006 Btw, what happened to rich and Gold@3440 ? I miss your posts. Look forward to seeing you back here soon. Btw, what happened to rich and Gold@3440 ? I miss your posts. Look forward to seeing you back here soon.

]]> By: Paul_E http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1005 Paul_E Fri, 19 Jun 2009 08:46:17 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1005 Three more sources point to a final push higher. One is the Bradley model, which has been astonishingly accurate this year http://robertew.com/bradley/br2009.jpg Another is the Elliot Wave people, who are saying a little further to go timewise and pricewise. The third source is HS Dent, who has been very accurate all along for the last few years - same call on the market as Bradley and EW. I am personally looking to go heavily short mid July. Three more sources point to a final push higher. One is the Bradley model, which has been astonishingly accurate this year http://robertew.com/bradley/br2009.jpg
Another is the Elliot Wave people, who are saying a little further to go timewise and pricewise. The third source is HS Dent, who has been very accurate all along for the last few years – same call on the market as Bradley and EW. I am personally looking to go heavily short mid July.

]]> By: Chrisss http://carolan.org/2009/06/levels/comment-page-1/#comment-1004 Chrisss Fri, 19 Jun 2009 07:50:42 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=2102#comment-1004 I've a feeling this could be the final bear trap. Whilst there are plenty of bearish signs in many indicators, there is also a lot of support at current levels. The solunar model, which continues to provide a remarkable road map, suggest a couple more weeks of strength from here. It would perhaps be wise to see where we are in early July before getting aggressively short ? Don't know if anyone would like to comment further ? I’ve a feeling this could be the final bear trap. Whilst there are plenty of bearish signs in many indicators, there is also a lot of support at current levels. The solunar model, which continues to provide a remarkable road map, suggest a couple more weeks of strength from here. It would perhaps be wise to see where we are in early July before getting aggressively short ? Don’t know if anyone would like to comment further ?

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