Comments on: Down Mode

By: Paul_E

Paul_E — Fri, 22 May 2009 20:52:20 +0000

Adding this comment to an old post so it might not get read – but if I am right about Weds as an S&P bottom next week, then this could cause the drop in gold as shown in Chris’s Gold Solunar model. Speculators buying gold for safety now will pile out if a sharp stock market rally (wave C) happens.

By: Gold@3440

Gold@3440 — Fri, 22 May 2009 08:54:53 +0000

Many thanks to all with the comments on 10yr T move. I was also confused by the weakness of USD v GBP but is clearly a wake up call/shot across the bows to the US to say that no nation is safe from downgrade.

Paul_E. In EW terms, have we not just completed wave a of an a,b,c correction of Wave A (up)? This would mean we are now in wave b (up) of Wave B before one more corrective wave (c of B). Then it’s the final bull run (Wave C) before the implosion starts anytime from mid-July. If we are in wave b, this would concur with both yours and LovesBeta’s view (of strength today but more weakness next week).

By: Paul_E

Paul_E — Fri, 22 May 2009 08:43:52 +0000

Gold@3440 – a letter writer I subscribe to said there are rumors that Standard & Poor’s, having missed the collapse of so many financial institutions, is trying to make up for it by downgrading US debt obligations as well as UK. This is why the bond market didn’t rally as the stock market declined.
Btw – I have next Weds as a temporary bottom, then up for about a week to make a triple top intraday) at around 920 S&P. After that a choppy summer – perhaps a slightly higher high in July, perhaps not, then I agree with everyone else a big drop starting September.
Other possibility is a much higher high in July with Obama/Fed stimulus kicking in (or at least perceptions of it, and small investors getting sucked in on the final wave up). In that scenario 1000 S&P acts as a magnet. A pop above 1000 intraday would mark the top.

By: LovesBeta

LovesBeta — Fri, 22 May 2009 08:20:00 +0000

We tend to get a pump, a day or two trading days before holidays. Today (Friday), we should see a bid of strength. I would actually be surprised if we are weak today given yesterday we were weak as well. Run back started yesterday afternoon, will be carious where it goes today.

By: phaesed

phaesed — Thu, 21 May 2009 20:59:23 +0000

Hey Gold,
The Fed came in and purchased fewer treasuries than the bond market thought, additionally the downgrade of the UK watered appetite, especially ahead of the $100 billion in issuances coming out next week. IE, rates will be moving up despite a market that should be moving down. Sorry, just can’t believe the financials aren’t being manipulated.

By: Denali92

Denali92 — Thu, 21 May 2009 16:38:52 +0000

Chris, Excellent help yesterday – Thank you! I was convinced the market should fall a lot but all of that time above 911.25 post the FOMC minutes had me doubting myself. I used your view as the clincher to keep the shorts on. I am intrigued to discover that the follow up to your ‘Exhausted view’ is only a return to 875 – I thought it might have changed to something lower say 855 given the net sell line at 897.25.

Thanks again!

By: Aronny

Aronny — Thu, 21 May 2009 16:19:45 +0000

Chris, how far down do you expect this decline to go?

By: Gold@3440

Gold@3440 — Thu, 21 May 2009 16:13:31 +0000

Anyone know what’s going on in the 10yr T? Gone from 3.15% to 3.30% in an equity sell-off…. also commodities are not as weak as I would have expected. nyone got any ideas?