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Tricks & Tides

April 23rd, 2009 at 7:11pm · 14 Comments

The question was asked when the solutide model flips to long.  As written, the model flips on Thursday, May 7. However, the next tidal buy date is Monday, April 27. This date just misses being the flip date as it’s less than one point higher than the subsequent tidal sell of May 1.  FWIW.

In other news, the Tricks index generated a weak sell today. This signal is the first on the sell side by this indicator since August 2008. These signals can be early, but I think it validates our view that the next significant move will be lower (whenever it comes.)

click chart to enlarge

click chart to enlarge

Tags: General Market Commentary · Market Internals · Solunar Model · Tides

14 responses so far ↓

  • 1 ptg // Apr 23, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    Good call. Whatever the Tricks index is, it’s right. We will drop hard tomorrow, but if we don’t then it’ll happen Monday. Either way, shorting the close today was the right move. Any spike tomorrow will be a gift for shorting more.

  • 2 LovesBeta // Apr 23, 2009 at 9:48 pm

    I am not clearly sure, but it seems there was a divergence as well just before Feb 09 with the two humps. It followed with a sell off till the bottom in March. Looking at the MCO of the NASDAQ, the leading index with good earning news, the breath is even wose than NY.

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html

    Tomorrow we have the bank stress tests and Unemployment numbers. Don’t know if the timimng is used to boost one another, or counter balance the other. Since the tests are basically meaningless, and I havn’t heard too many front line layoff news, and usually First Quarters many hirings are done, I suspect they are trying to have complemantry effect to run the market. And the resilience in the bids so far shows that. But my bet is still for a down direction for now. I dared to counter the solunar and tides synchronicity twice so far, with rather punishing results :-)

  • 3 Josh // Apr 24, 2009 at 7:20 am

    Chris. I, too am thinking about the short side, but up open, high above open today makes 874.71 very likely. I will reassess from there. FWIW.

  • 4 chris // Apr 24, 2009 at 8:05 am

    Yes, there are other divergences on the Tricks chart. Signals need to be divergences in the vicinity of the Bollinger bands.

  • 5 chris // Apr 24, 2009 at 8:13 am

    Although I bent that rule at the late 2008 lows.

  • 6 LovesBeta // Apr 24, 2009 at 9:38 am

    @ my previous post. Don’t know why I was thinking unemployment numbers were going to be released today!! :-) ) I am officially over worked. Sorry about that.

  • 7 rich // Apr 24, 2009 at 10:01 am

    Hi Chris,
    Was there a time for that net-line buy? If not then we went straight through it.

  • 8 Gold@3440 // Apr 24, 2009 at 10:01 am

    Spanish unemployment? 17.36%. Nice.

  • 9 nostalgia1983 // Apr 24, 2009 at 10:48 am

    @Gold@3440, is that supposed to really mean anything? i mean even in good economy unemployment in Spain has always been above 10%

  • 10 Gold@3440 // Apr 24, 2009 at 12:13 pm

    nostalgia1983. No, means nothing. Was a comment to LovesBeta (7th post). About as relevant as the upcoming Stress Test announcement.

  • 11 phaesed // Apr 24, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    But I don’t get it…… isn’t this classic buy the rumour, sell the news? We have surpassed the Elliott pattern breach level of ~862, but still it feels forced. All this bank buying *RIGHT* before the stress test results? It smells fake, although another indicator I use says this should be a continuation, I just dislike bank BUYING right before news comes out.

  • 12 LovesBeta // Apr 24, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    @ Gold@3440, Yeah that’s likely the unemployment number or worse for many countries or cities. Specially if they didn’t use ’smoothing’ factors such as birth/death model and so forth :-)

  • 13 deuxsous // Apr 26, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    My sentiment stuff is also edging toward sell country, with even a minor sentiment “divergence” from readings of April 17.

    There are now seemingly as many tides methods as there are seaports and ponds. I just look at where an asset price is compared to its two week Bollinger bands as the next date approaches. On that simple-minded approach, and fwiw, I see Friday or tomorrow as a high for stocks and gold and a low for bonds.

    TD

  • 14 deuxsous // May 3, 2009 at 6:52 pm

    Well it worked for gold and yen which reversed down. But stocks made a low instead of a high and bonds continued to their destiny.

    There is a weak and broad (in time) turn signal now since Thurday. Based on bands and channels yen, bonds, and gold seem ripe to rise.

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