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Nicked It
April 30th, 2009 at 11:09am · 7 Comments
Prices touched the 60 minute upper Keltner this morning, and got quite close on the 135 minute. Essentially, when prices are close to channel extremes on two charts, we look for a reversal. I’m including a 135 minute candle chart as well. This chart shows six range bust reversal bars in the past week and a half! There was nearly another in the first bar of today, which would have made consective reversal bars, something I’ve never seen. It seems we’re set up nicely to head in the other direction, but the tendency in recent weeks is for only the minimum of any downside to be realized. There are no operable net-lines active on the charts at this time.
Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
7 responses so far ↓
1 Berkeley Square // May 1, 2009 at 2:20 pm
small H&S top on Hourly Nasdaq & QQQQ; can also see this & necklines on 10 min charts
Should give us a nice pullback buy point next week
2 wwshep // May 2, 2009 at 11:25 am
Chris,
Where is the upper channel on the daily chart at currently? Last time you posted it was around 907 and I assume it has been rising. Just wondering where it is now as that could very well be a magnet for next week. Also while you are at it it would be nice to know where the upper band is on the current weekly as well.
Thanks,
Bill
3 LovesBeta // May 2, 2009 at 1:00 pm
These two charts are ratios of ETFs for the two leading indexes in this rally to the S&P ETF: SPY
XLF-SPY (Financials / S&P)
http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww139/LovesBeta/XLF-SPY.jpg
QQQQ-SPY (NASD-100 / S&P)
http://i713.photobucket.com/albums/ww139/LovesBeta/QQQQ-SPY.jpg
@Berkeley Square, If there is a pull back, I am looking to cover my shorts into it. They moved the ‘news’ of banks test results to Thursday, ‘after’ the bond auctions. The meat of the selling, if any, usually is the second day of the three day auctions (Tuesday here). But maybe that will extend to Wed. on ‘fears’ of bad bank test results. However, I wouldn’t discount another pop right out either. But I am betting with indicators
4 LovesBeta // May 2, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Corrections on those dates: The three day auctions are on Tues (5), Wed (6), Thurs. (7) and the test results are released on the (7th). So I would say the meat of selling if any would be by Wed.
5 gunntrader // May 2, 2009 at 8:49 pm
Im looking for 60 day cycle to expire.60 days from march 6th low is 6th may,+ – a day or two.As it stands now its looking like a high
gunn
6 Berkeley Square // May 3, 2009 at 4:09 am
@LovesBeta,
“…I am looking to cover my shorts into it. ”
That’s why i wrote “Should give us a nice pullback buy point next week”.
However, because Nasdaq & Q’s registered their 8th consecutive upweek the initial rally might fail at the end giving us a negligible downweek.
7 Berkeley Square // May 4, 2009 at 8:13 am
@ LovesBeta,
Looks like we won’t get any follow-thru on the downside today. OTOH, must admit that it’s difficult to fathom a 9th straight upweek on the Nasdaq, but there has been a degree of internal correcting within the upchannel despite the overbought situation.
Hate mkts that DRIFT up or grind. Sideways may even be better & hate those too.
We may get a little acceleration since we’re on the North side of the 200D for NDX/Q’s & it’s day #2 of a new month.
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