Finish Line
April 9th, 2009 at 11:09am · 9 Comments
It was interesting watching yesterday afternoon’s trading after giving out the net-line levels here at 811 and 810.75. The eMini dropped to a low at 811.75 and then reversed somewhat sharply. That price action pretty much insured the followthrough today. Price has touched the upper bands of both 60 and 135 minute charts with only the daily still to come. That level is now 853.8. Expect trading to get very light as we approach tomorrow’s holiday.
To answer a question from the comments, the exact high on the solunar model next week is on Monday. But don’t expect prices to reverse exactly on that date. Rather, it’s time to realize that the seasonal upward pressure is ending.
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
9 responses so far ↓
1 LovesBeta // Apr 9, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Thanks Chris. I got whacked today
) But hopefully the next few weeks will be better. Just wanted to post that USD was up today, and it has been going inverse to the markets for a while; Just a note to add to this finish line post.
2 nostalgia1983 // Apr 9, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Chris, am I seeing a good potential for the tick Cycle-trap divergence for both 60 min and 135 min chart here?
3 rich // Apr 9, 2009 at 3:59 pm
The S&P is now up 28.5% in just five weeks & is topping out on a number of indicators. That is a long long way in a very short time. Even if this rally is not over, we are overdue for some consolidation and down weeks.
Earnings season is unlikely to continue as well as it has started. No serious commentator is suggesting that we have reached a trough in earnings yet, and we aren’t likely to before 2010.
Bloomberg is now almost a perfect mirror image of the bottom in March. Then, all was gloom and the world was sliding inevitably into the abyss. Now all is cheer, and many suggest that the next bull market may already have begun.
I took losses today as well, but thats only because I’m already averaging into my short positions.
4 hindenburg_omen // Apr 9, 2009 at 4:23 pm
@rich, i here you re: averaging in, but it was more painful than expected. we closed right at the top of the daily keltner channel that chris gave presciently, which also happens to be at the top of the trendline formed by the 3/26+4/2 highs on s&p cash, which has a parallel trendline below. in my opinion, this is a pretty sweet spot to turn down from on monday, as the macd could score a nice bearish divergence too.
btw, what could of saved me (and everyone) a lot of money was to note a perfect 6-day cycle of lows in the mini (3/12, 3/20, 3/30, 4/7-8).. should have seen it earlier.
chris, great readings, as always.
5 rich // Apr 9, 2009 at 5:21 pm
@hindenburg_omen: well I was very sorry I started averaging in yesterday rather than today. Ouch.
I was adding right at the top today, which I agree looks a very possible spot to turn down from. Distinct bearish rising wedges on both daily & 60 min charts, just like December.
6 rich // Apr 9, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Chris,
Great work as always, How’s the subscription service coming along?
7 LovesBeta // Apr 10, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Even though, I had a sense that there is at least one more push to this drive, and solunar model and even tidals were pointing for up direction, I stayed bearish. This was actually the second time that I was positioned against the direction of solunar model. First time was the second half of December last year going into early January and that was also not a good experience. Having got two learning experiences for the better, I don’t think I would want to be necessarily betting against the indicators next time. Maybe neutral until the levels are confirmed, but betting against, only at most for a day or two.
8 wwshep // Apr 14, 2009 at 9:49 am
Reading the comments here tells me this thing has a ways to go on the upside. too many trapped bears adopting “hold and hope” strategy. Also I suspect the net buy signal on the weekly chart is overpowering the shorter term stuff. When all the bearish “hopers” capitulate probably up around 940-960 SPX then we can resume the bear.
9 rich // Apr 14, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@wwshep. You think that the market will only fall when the last bears capitulate? I don’t think so.
I don’t think that this rally is necessarily finished, but we are due for a couple of down weeks even if it is to continue. The market doesn’t go up in a straight line even as it doesn’t go down that way either.
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