I’ve been following your DOW Solunar Model for some time now. I had a bad feeling this week and decided to temporarily disregard it (to my advantage!). Anyway I was wondering if you were planning on posting the latest version anytime soon. Keep up the good work!

Mike D

I hadn’t daytraded in several years, but I have recently been daytrading gold etf’s: GDX and GLD. They generally trade multi-million shares daily on mostly a one pip spread. Almost by accident or instinct I have traded them just by looking at side by side charts of es, nearby gold futures, ABX, and the funds themselves, since they both have a bit of all of those elements.

I haven’t been using indicators at all, but I have the tide cycle in mind. It’s rather “seat of the pants” trading but it has been working well. I expect it’s something I should only do when I feel perfectly healthy and happy, but it has been fun and profitable lately.

Your gold work fits into that quite well.

As we approach a clear downtrend in the solunar model, I speculate that it is unlikely that we’ll see a further rise in physical gold. We could see a decline or maybe mostly sideways movement.

If this turns out to be the case, wouldn’t one possible trade be to sell March calls slightly in the money, covered by a profitable position? As long as gold doesn’t go up, a covered option position should help hold value if not gain outright vs. say an equivalent LEAP option. Then if gold makes a low in the 3/19-4/1 timeframe you could add to your underlying and sell more covered calls in the late May timeframe. Lather, rinse, profit.

I think the only way this loses is if gold moves up nontrivially against the prevailing solunar tide. While that’s always possible, it doesn’t seem to be the way to bet. It would be nice (nudge, nudge) to have a longer-term historic gold solunar chart to see how often gold moved contrary to a well-defined solunar trend.