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thoughts on markets & cetera – christopher carolan

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More Tides

January 3rd, 2009 at 8:48pm · 5 Comments

In the What Tide is It? post’s comment section, Dave asks…

Would be interesting to see the red and green Taylor tops/bottoms on the dow line rather than the solunar line – looks like it is pretty good at predicting highs/lows, with some notable exceptions like Nov 21 which looks like a Taylor tidal top coincident with the market low.

Here it is!

click chart to enlarge

Here’s the chart in the original post updated with the latest Dow prices.

click chart to enlarge

The combination of the tidal dates and the solunar model seems to invite a trading model that combines the two; i.e. using the solunar model as a filter to determine which tidal signals to take.  Here’s two simple rules – go from long to short on the sell tides (red) if the subsequent buy tide is at a lower level on the solunar model – and go from short to long on the buy tides (green) if the subsequent sell tide is at a higher level on the solunar model.

click chart to enlarge

Interesting results – 80% winning trades.  Now let’s list some of the caveats – small sample size – not an out of sample test – this is a period where the solunar model has tracked the market remarkably closely, and I am 100% confident it will not continue to do so. – etc. etc.

Nonetheless, this is a trading model that has absolutely no inputs from current price, volume, or any financial data whatsoever. In fact, the buy and sell dates for this model could be calculated in advance for the next eight years right now!! The solunar model was formulate over 10 years ago and has not been adjusted in any way since, and Mr. Taylor’s tidal approach was documented in the early years of this decade as well, if not sooner.

The model will move from long to short on the close, Monday, January 5. We’ll be tracking this model with interest in real time going forward.

Tags: Solunar Model · Tides

5 responses so far ↓

  • 1 dave // Jan 4, 2009 at 12:09 am

    An impressive track record with a simple model. It’s almost as if the tidal extremes can mark either highs or low and the polarity changes depending on positive or negative mood or impulsive or corrective market movement.

    There are also a bunch of spiral calendar dates that align with a 1/2/09 to 1/5/09 turn window – I’ve posted charts at http://spiraldates.com/?p=22.

    Dave

  • 2 idrisb59 // Jan 4, 2009 at 10:32 am

    hello everyone,

    firstly a happy new year. I have been drawn to this site a couple of months ago and obviously fascinated.

    I would like to learn and understand the basics instead of just trying to follow the proceedings.

    I do have very basic astro knowledge and know about planetary cycles ( geo and helio ) and a bit more.

    where should I start ? I want to learn and understand and not looking to be told the answers ;)

    Thank you

  • 3 hope // Jan 5, 2009 at 10:23 am

    As seen here, the top occurs today and the next good buy signal occurs around 2/5. Is this interpretation correct?

    Thanks

  • 4 hope // Jan 5, 2009 at 11:17 am

    Also, is it possible to get updates on this chart i.e the combination of solunar model with tidal dates marked over it as you have shown here?

  • 5 chris // Jan 7, 2009 at 1:40 pm

    idrisb59 – where to start? I don’t know if there’s an easy answer to that. This blog is something of a snapshot of ideas that interest me. Welcome to Chris’ brain.

    hope – yes, these charts will be periodically updated.

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