The oil solunar model suffers from a paucity of data, as daily oil prices are only available (with any accuracy) from the beginning of futures trading in the early 1980s. Nonetheless, the solunar model does pick up on the general seasonal cycle where prices are weak for the fourth quarter of the calendar year. The model suggests weaknes from late January into mid March.
The 10-yr yield chart is of questionable utility. The forecast for 2008 was not very accurate, though the model was looking for sharp drop in yields, the timing was wrong.
Solunar model charts are constructed from averaging data from previous years – they are simply seasonal charts. The only change is that only those years with similar lunar calendars to the current one are used.
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
1 response so far ↓
1 richard malato // Jan 8, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Chris,
I donated yesterday. I am happy to do this. Could
you send me the white paper you recently wrote.
I am still trying to understand you style.
Rich
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