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When Indicators Fail
November 6th, 2008 at 10:37am · 3 Comments
When a group of indicators signal and the market doesn’t respond, that’s an important message being delivered as to the strength of the larger trend. Crude oil saw four buy indications (2 RSI divergences, 1 Cycle-Trap reversal and 1 Net Line buy) in the space of four days and is reacting by rolling over and heading lower. Crude oil is sending a message that the downtrend is extremely strong and not yet complete. I’m thinking a $50. target on crude is reasonable. The lower channel on the daily chart is at 51.40 and dropping by about .60 per day.
Tags: S&P 500
3 responses so far ↓
1 deacon31 // Nov 6, 2008 at 1:04 pm
silver dropped a dollar recently today, about $5000 per contract, finally couldn’t stand up to the crude oil drop…hedge fund redemption day 11/15 may still be hurting the commodities, so how about the bonds….march ’09 long bond (US) has seasonal buys now ’til the end of year from mrci, and commercials were building their long in US TY thru last weeks cot report…commercials were also long CL, with small specs short CL US TY…commercials were short SP, with small specs net long 350k ES contracts
2 tobject // Nov 9, 2008 at 7:52 pm
There is a rumor
Comex default in december, $2000 gold in a day
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GGGOObeaYQ
Chris, do you have any Spiral Calendar turn dates for gold in near future?
3 deacon31 // Nov 10, 2008 at 10:30 am
was interesting on the fall equinox, it was a monday, and somebody squeezed a stuck short on the expiring that day crude oil contract to close it at about 130, and the pundits went wild calling the start of a new commodity bull run…actually it was the best short in commodities there could be (one reason the equinox turn), as regulators responded by changing the rules on crude oil contracts, and crude oil has dropped all the way down to here and took precious metals along for the ride…on goldbug sites you have to understand it’s only bullish posts no matter what happens, and they started that comex junk way too early, gold responded to it by dumping to 717…gold and silver usually get stronger from now to year end, but this week is unpredictable due to hedge fund redemptions
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