Potential
November 12th, 2008 at 9:21pm · 5 Comments
The ingredients for a U.S. stock market low are forming, but it’s not yet clear that the low is nearby. Selling has been intense and consistent, two features that will need to disappear before prices can reverse. And yet, the charts show the modified DMX poised to form a bullish divergence (if prices turn up.) We’ve also arrived at that November Spiral Calendar turn date mentioned in previous reports. Clearly selling intensity and emotion have picked up. Today’s ISEE call/put reading was lower than any since September.
The sum of the parts is that I can see how we are close to a low, but there’s no sense in ‘calling’ for a low, or taking any foolishly heroic stand in the face of such relentless selling. It’s just a time to watch and wait.
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
5 responses so far ↓
1 humble1 // Nov 13, 2008 at 8:07 am
this is certainly a VERY interesting FULL MOON! tick and p/c and vix seem to have noticed.
comments, anyone/everyone?
2 deacon31 // Nov 13, 2008 at 9:06 am
cashin said it well on tv a few minutes ago, can lose lows to set off capitulation selling, or hold and start a 30% bounce…some people call today ‘misdirection thursday’ where whatever way it goes today, next whole op-ex week goes opposite direction…as i mentioned in previous post, i like them to keep it low to end this week as the big boyz scoop up cheap calls and sell fat puts for the op-ex week run, and the gann style with 1929 1987 and spiral date are all nicely here…i hear larry pesavento thrice a week and he said key VIX fib to hold at 73, if holds try a SP buy
3 humble1 // Nov 13, 2008 at 12:02 pm
d31:
i like larry; i have some of his work.
i’m loaded as long as i can comfortable be right now with cash-paid-for equities and leveraged index funds, but maybe i will try some cheap calls next week if we haven’t screamed north by then.
4 deacon31 // Nov 13, 2008 at 12:48 pm
about 10/24 on tv they mentioned all the october ‘crashes’ came in shortly thereafter on calendar, so i thought i’d reread Chris’ 1998 charles dow award winning paper on ‘autumn panics’ and i typed in calendarresearch dot com and wooosh i was here for first time.
tom drake’s model in his blog seems to agree with this downswoop in mid month:
http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/dowsol-102408-450×275.gif
5 humble1 // Nov 13, 2008 at 2:16 pm
other interesting lows:
11/13/1929
11/15/1907
11/9/1903
11/?/1946
11/?/1987
perhaps someone could fill in the ?’s
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