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The Tricks Index Treats
October 12th, 2008 at 4:14pm · 10 Comments
My Tricks Index gets the award for a patient indicator. It’s yet to flash a ‘buy’ in the midst of this horrific decline. But as the green lines on the chart show, it’s cocked and loaded to fire with an ongoing divergence. The next up close in the S&P 500 will give the signal, unless the Tricks Index exceeds its September 29 extreme. The last signal on this indicator was a sell on August 7 with the S&P index at 1266.
Tags: General Market Commentary · Market Internals · S&P 500
10 responses so far ↓
1 molecool // Oct 12, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Is this a momentum indicator?
2 chris // Oct 12, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Details here http://carolan.org/2008/06/13/the-tricks-index/
3 Peter // Oct 13, 2008 at 12:07 am
Chris, assuming we get a trigger next few days, how does that reconcile with (your forecast?) of a sell-off/major low Oct 26th
4 AndyB // Oct 13, 2008 at 10:11 am
Chris,
Maybe your indicator was waiting for Fibonacci? (see my comments under Cramer).
So I am now waiting for a confirmation of a resumption of the downtrend; into the Dark Days? I have done some calculations as follows; if you have time maybe you could comment on them:
F11 from 23/1/08 gives 28/10/2008
F7 from 15/7/08 gives 29/10/2008
In an attempt to recreate figure 5-2 in your book I found a spiral back from the full moon of 16/1/2014 for 24/10/2008 (the end of a panic?)
There are also Fibonacci reationships here as well; the monthly chart shows a golden section based on 31 Oct/1 Nov.
Sorry, Im in the UK and dates are in English format.
5 tobject // Oct 13, 2008 at 11:15 am
Do you include all old Calendar Research Reports with $35 donation?
I’d like to read any additions to the theory
6 molecool // Oct 13, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Thanks for sharing the details – that’s very generous of you – greatly appreciated.
Well, I was on the short side most of today and took a kick to the groin. Closed my positions when $SPX pushed above 970, which is more than 1.618 times the a wave I counted. It seems we’re in wave 4 now (consolidation pattern).
7 IRL // Oct 13, 2008 at 3:36 pm
A few people have asked how we could hit new lows in late Oct. Clearly last week saw mass liquidation but was it really end of the world capitulation? Know this is not an elliottwave forum but most likely in a 4th wave consolidation now in the ongoing move since Aug, in my view. These 4ths are often triangular which would allow for some range trading before a final blow out late Oct. The first upmove usually stops at .382 of the decline (1002) which would cooincide with tonight’s close. After crash or extended 3rd wave moves an unusual .50 retrace is possible at 1052. Either way, would mean a tightening range between 850-1000/50 for a few weeks before fresh lows.
Chris, remember you used to rank Octobers as “friendly” or “unfriendly” depending on a second criteria. If the crisis target did not match this second criteria, the likelihood of an Oct low in the crisis window was reduced. Does this second test apply this year.
You asked for feedback on what people like/would be happy to pay for. The periodic papers were what I enjoyed most from before. Still with such shocking speed and volatility in markets, both the medium term and more short web analysis have a value for me at current time.
8 molecool // Oct 13, 2008 at 5:16 pm
IRL – agree with you mostly.
9 molecool // Oct 13, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Regarding fee based service. I think I could spring 29.99/month for the medium term service. I am not familiar with the short term, so would need to see one first.
10 Peter // Oct 16, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Chris, having got the trigger, how does that reconcile with (your forecast?) of a sell-off/major low Oct 26th. Thanks
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