Where does the October 10 low fit in the bigger picture? Was this an important low? What about the ‘dark day’s calculation outlined in “Autumn Panics, A Calendar Phenomenon?”
The October 10 low is clearly important. The put/call numbers at the bottom were extreme as was just about every measure of market emotion. From a timing standpoint, this low is F15 on the Spiral Calendar back from the expected final low in 2010. So here is a logical place for the market to pause. Will there be a test of this low? I think we’ll definitely see some time of renewed selling. I’m showing a Solunar Model chart here for the first time on the blog. Former Calendar Research subscribers will recognize this analysis. The Solunar Model is a seasonal model, constructed by averaging past years’ performances, like any seasonal model. The difference is that only those years with a similar lunar calendar to this year are used in the calculation. The chart shows how the model has correctly called the general shape of the recent months’ trading pattern. The model’s low point for the year is October 26, coincident with the Autum Panics ‘dark days’ calculation.
On balance, I think we see more selling, but the most severe selling is complete for the foreseeable future. It’s unlikely that October 10′s lows will be taken out this month. A rally into early November could set up the Spiral Calendar date shown in the June report as a high. But it’s really too early to speculate even a few weeks out given the extreme psychotic nature of recent trading. Anything can surely happen.
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
2 responses so far ↓
1 JC Martin // Oct 15, 2008 at 7:50 am
Sorry I can’t download that page which was in Acrobat very old version………and I lost my old data in a computer crash
can you include that Autumn report here?
thks JC
2 tobject // Oct 15, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Do you include access to all old Calendar Research Reports with $35 donation? I’d like to read any additions to the theory
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