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14 responses so far ↓

• 1 sjpilotte // Oct 24, 2008 at 1:28 pm

  NYSE trader Art Cashin mentioned the lunar calendar panic dates on CNBC this afternoon at about 2 pm EST. He said they fall on Sun/Mon. No mention of your name or work. Seems like an awful lot of people (too many) are anticipating a panic or capitulation day here. BTW, thanks for your unique and objective market analysis.

• 2 muellerjoerg // Oct 24, 2008 at 3:44 pm

  I know Chris and many others are way more experienced and probably talented at market analysis than me. Does the following make sense?

  IMO we broke through the triangles in boths DIA and SPY today (Nasdaq is even worse off). We did so under big volume. This is a bearish sign and could lead to ~200 points lower in the S&P500 as that is the width of the triangle base. This would measure to ~730. Besides, a weak rallye to the lower triangle line could happen first before the market rolls over to new lows.
  Joe

• 3 Lawrence_Chiu // Oct 25, 2008 at 12:47 am

  Chris,

  Do you see a crash on Monday? Many bloggers and message boards are calling for a 20 to 25% S&P500 crash on Monday.

• 4 tobject // Oct 25, 2008 at 2:13 am

  Looks like everyone is forgetting what 7-28 lunar day ends late Monday 27th
  So we have whole trading Monday to go lower

• 5 jay mann // Oct 25, 2008 at 8:51 am

  I calculate the 28th day of the 7th Lunar month to be the 25th of this month which is today, thus the selling climax did’nt really materialise on the US stock exchanges so I doulbt a bottem was put in altough the VIX was at an all time high. It is very likly that we have a watershed day come Monday. I hope that Chris is right that the point of maximum panic was Friday, in Asia they would probably agree, then again when the bottem is in nobody waves a flag indicating this. So it well could be?

• 6 muellerjoerg // Oct 25, 2008 at 2:43 pm

  Chris,

  Is the point of maximum panic also the price low or could it be the maximum momentum low, which could be followed by another price low?
  Joe

• 7 tobject // Oct 25, 2008 at 8:22 pm

  jay mann
  I used Universal Lunar calendar
  set for Los Angeles
  http://lunarium.co.uk/calendar.php

  and subscracted 3 hours

  I should’ve used New York instead

• 8 tobject // Oct 25, 2008 at 8:24 pm

  I mean “added 3 hours”

• 9 jay mann // Oct 26, 2008 at 5:28 am

  Dear tobject,

  Thank you for the calender- very interseting! Now due to the different positions of the Moon for different cities, the calender shows that Asia and Europe do not escape the 7 – 28 (Most of my investments are linked to the FTSE 100 as i’m a londoner ): Thus based on the caleneder positions I can only presume another repeat of Friday where it was armageddon in the other other continents pushing US futures to limit down and then the US remarkably opening fairly flatish come 9.30est). Tobject / Chris you guys clearly know a great deal more about these cycles then I do so what do you think? I am keeping an eye on the Tel Aviv stock exchage which trades on Sunday and it is presently down by 2.94%.

  Thanks

  Jay

• 10 JC Martin // Oct 26, 2008 at 5:39 am

  Seen in Robert McHugh:
  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  Before we get into where the market is headed, we must report a most astonishing event that occurred Friday morning: The market opened closed (selling halts were imposed), futures hitting their limit before the open. It opened down 500 points, and scared the (pick your noun) out of anyone paying attention. The Plunge Protection Team then came in and – to quote King Henry, “The Treasury is monitoring markets,” which is code for “bought the living tar out of markets.” The stock market then rose slowly throughout the day until a late day plunge drove prices down to a sharp 3.5 percent loss.

  Further in the “can you believe it” category, Friday, October 24th was the 79th anniversary of the day the stock market crashed in 1929. Now get this, back then, selling began on Thursday, October 24th, 1929, then continued with a vengeance, accelerating the following Monday and Tuesday, known as Black Monday and Black Tuesday, 1929.
  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

• 11 kimball // Oct 26, 2008 at 5:57 am

  sure looks like a new moon Sun morning on VA eastern shore about as far east as you get Sun morning 5 AM as I read the paper, the worst should be past

• 12 jay mann // Oct 26, 2008 at 7:08 am

  Dear JC Martin,

  I have read his report so thank you, I see he has a number of scenerios – more bearish but does signal a bear market rally into 2009.

  Most stock market bottems are put in on the last monday of October (as stated several times on Bloomberg TV) so I think the probability of a big sell of Monday is even more likily. The following site is also quite informative and somewhat mirrors what Mr Mchugh is saying.

  http://www.tradertom.com/analysis.htm

• 13 sjpilotte // Oct 26, 2008 at 10:24 am

  Folks,
  Charts of 1929 and 1987 show that after 7-27/28 the market rallied stronglt for 2 days and then rolled over again for about a week. Something similar could transpire here, without a panic. New lows were then set in 1929 in Nov , but not in 1987. This bear market could also unfold in a manner similar to 1930-1932 or like China where no obvious capitulation occurs to signal a bottom.

• 14 SteveR // Oct 26, 2008 at 12:40 pm

  Elliott Wave counts suggest we are just completing wave 4 correction after the big 3 down. So I think there is still a wave 5 down to complete the entire impulsive wave down which started almost a year ago.

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