pay attention or pay the offer

thoughts on markets & cetera – christopher carolan

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Right & Wrong at the Same Time!

September 29th, 2008 at 11:28am · No Comments

Overhearing people talking about the market these days – the catch phrases that stand out are ‘you can’t time the market’ – and – ‘I’m in for the long-term’  – and – ‘in the long run, prices go up.’

Here’s a monthly chart of the S&P 500, which right now is at 1163.  The chart shows how the S&P could fall to 650 in the next two years and still ‘go up in the long run!’ Such a decline would represent a 44% drop from today’s values, and a stunning 59% drop from the all-time highs.  So yes, the ‘buy for the long-term’ crowd might be right, but are they prepared for the wrong that will be done to their portfolios in the meantime?

click chart to enlarge

Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500 · The Long Wave

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