Accumulating Evidence
September 30th, 2008 at 10:42am · 1 Comment
Evidence is accumulating that a stock market low is in place. Yesterday’s presentation of the Sprial Calendar turning point set the stage for a potential emotional market turn. Prices weren’t at new lows, so I was skeptical of the SC’s value here, but once the September 18 low was taken out, this turn was ‘in play.’ For those not familiar with the Spiral Calendar, the theory is that emotional market turns are linked to previous emotional market turns by Spiral Calendar time units. The power of the Spiral Calendar was on display earlier this year with its spectacular call of the oil bubble top here. But remember, the size of the expected turn is proportional to the time units involved, so these are relatively short Spiral Calendar time frames – therefore expect a dramatic and emotional low, but not one that will mark the end of this bear market. This is an intermediate low that will hold for months at best.
Yesterday’ VIX extremes are the type of emotional readings seen at important bottoms. The combination of the high VIX numbers and the clustered Spiral Calendar dates are convincing evidence of a bottom here.
The picture from my technical indicators confirms this view as well for the short-term. The 60 and 135 minute eMini chart both have modified DMX divergences in place. It’s no time to be bearish on U.S. stocks!
click chart to enlarge
click chart to enlarge
Tags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500 · Sentiment · The Spiral Calendar
1 response so far ↓
1 arowanack // Sep 30, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Hi Chris, its been a while that I’ve gotten to read ur stuff again .. last been `Buy Roshanah, sell Yom Kippur’. Events of 2008 ( time-price wise) seems to have its similarities to 1998 .. this Sep low… looks like a good call indeed … cheers
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