Comments on: Bonds & Rates http://carolan.org/2008/08/bonds-rates/ thoughts on markets & cetera - christopher carolan Sat, 31 Jul 2010 14:16:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: chris http://carolan.org/2008/08/bonds-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-63 chris Wed, 27 Aug 2008 19:52:07 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=577#comment-63 I think Joe is mixing Sarum with saros, a reference to my hypothesis that eclipse cycles are the driver of the long-wave. I think Joe is mixing Sarum with saros, a reference to my hypothesis that eclipse cycles are the driver of the long-wave.

]]> By: deuxsous http://carolan.org/2008/08/bonds-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-62 deuxsous Wed, 27 Aug 2008 19:44:21 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=577#comment-62 Having visited Old Sarum, Salisbury, and nearby Stonehenge when one could take a country bus and walk right in, I'm eager to know about your Sarum model. Having visited Old Sarum, Salisbury, and nearby Stonehenge when one could take a country bus and walk right in, I’m eager to know about your Sarum model.

]]> By: muellerjoerg http://carolan.org/2008/08/bonds-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-61 muellerjoerg Tue, 26 Aug 2008 18:55:34 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=577#comment-61 Chris, Thanks so much for your analysis. There are many influences on interest rates and the economy in general, but your Sarum model and the Spiral Calendar are certainly one of the best tools for mid-term financial planning. And this is regardless of how steep the stock market and commodities will go down and treasuries will go up versus there recent spikes 1999 - 2002/2003. Joe Chris,

Thanks so much for your analysis. There are many influences on interest rates and the economy in general, but your Sarum model and the Spiral Calendar are certainly one of the best tools for mid-term financial planning. And this is regardless of how steep the stock market and commodities will go down and treasuries will go up versus there recent spikes 1999 – 2002/2003.
Joe

]]> By: deuxsous http://carolan.org/2008/08/bonds-rates/comment-page-1/#comment-60 deuxsous Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:47:50 +0000 http://carolan.org/?p=577#comment-60 I see this period we are in as possibly a "vacation for inflation", not long wave's "economic winter" which is a decade or more off as I see it. The FRED long term investment grade bond yield chart shows the last two "winters" from 1919 to 1946 and 1980 to 2003. According to that schema, rates will be going up substatially after inflation gets back from a brief vacation. Fed and BOChina have kept rates from rising on schedule after 2003: the Greenspan "conundrum". http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/2008/08/very-long-term-andrews-pitchfork-of-the-dow-30-stock-index.html#comments http://www.screencast.com/users/Twocents/folders/Jing/media/96ae2993-bd14-4ec0-9297-a3b0e98a06e4 I see this period we are in as possibly a “vacation for inflation”, not long wave’s “economic winter” which is a decade or more off as I see it. The FRED long term investment grade bond yield chart shows the last two “winters” from 1919 to 1946 and 1980 to 2003. According to that schema, rates will be going up substatially after inflation gets back from a brief vacation. Fed and BOChina have kept rates from rising on schedule after 2003: the Greenspan “conundrum”.

http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/2008/08/very-long-term-andrews-pitchfork-of-the-dow-30-stock-index.html#comments

http://www.screencast.com/users/Twocents/folders/Jing/media/96ae2993-bd14-4ec0-9297-a3b0e98a06e4

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