pay attention or pay the offer

The High Low Logic index has been as good as any for timing the market the past year. Pay attention or pay the offer is the only site I know of that tracks this particular formulation of the index. The index will turn bullish when it drops below 1.00%. Friday’s reading was 1.05%. I anticipate a buy signal on Monday or Tuesday as the latest high values drop off the index.

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The Tricks Index has shown it’s first indication of any type of divergence today. It’s not much, but the suggestion is that a low is close by is supported by first signs of this divergence.

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On the sentiment front, put/call volume has reached the threshold that indicates a possible turn. However, the rise in volume has been steady, not the type of dramatic spike that is typical for a low. Again, the indication seems to be that a low is close but not quite here. The put/call ratio (3-day ‘Select’ shown) has not yet achieved the panic levels I expect at a market bottom.

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Fifty-two week new lows are starting to spike, but again, like my other indicators, they aren’t quite at the levels that scream, ‘market bottom now.’ I’d prefer to see a reading in excess of 1000 new low.

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In sum, stocks are close to, but not at a low. The best type of action would be a sharp, high-volume, capitulation sell-off early next week to cement a low in place. But the market rarely follows pre-written scripts.